Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026, outpacing Bloomberg consensus estimates of 2.1%, driven by tax cuts and reduced tariff drag. The firm expects 2.8% annual GDP expansion despite recent economic slowdown, with economists noting resilience despite spending disparities between income brackets.

Goldman analysts cite the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's tax provisions as the primary growth driver, with business investment poised to be GDP's strongest component. However, they warn that a 10% sustained stock market correction could reduce GDP by 0.5 percentage points through diminished consumer spending, which remains central to economic growth.

Additional risks include AI-driven labor market disruptions potentially increasing unemployment, higher consumer costs from tariffs, and oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions. The analysts note that while individual risks may not trigger recession, simultaneous shocks—particularly combining equity market declines with AI-related job displacement—could significantly impact growth. They suggest the Federal Reserve would likely respond with aggressive rate cuts to offset such scenarios.