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EU Transport Infrastructure: AI Disruption Safe Haven?

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European transport-infrastructure companies may offer investors a relative haven from potential economic disruption linked to artificial intelligence, according to a recent note from UBS Global Research. The broker highlighted the sector's regulated revenues, long asset lives, and exposure to leisure travel as key defensive attributes.

UBS cautioned that while the industry isn't insulated from AI-related economic volatility, companies with regulated pricing and stable cash generation may prove more resilient. The brokerage noted that past recessions triggered steep declines in activity, with truck traffic dropping on average high single digits year-over-year, air traffic mid single digits, and car traffic low single digits.

UBS identified Vinci, Eiffage, Aena, and ENAV as the "best positioned" companies in its coverage universe. The broker rated Vinci and Eiffage as "buy" with price targets of €148 and €145 respectively, citing their high returns on capital and strong balance sheets. Aena, also rated "buy" with a €27.5 target, stands out for its predominantly leisure traffic base of over 80%, which UBS believes could be more resilient if business travel softens.