Deutsche Bank has downgraded Yara International from Buy to Hold, citing a more balanced risk-reward profile after the fertilizer producer's stock gained nearly 13% since the bank's previous upgrade. The move comes despite Deutsche Bank's raised price target to NOK 484 from NOK 451, representing a 5.8% potential upside from Yara's NOK 457.30 closing price before the rating change.

While maintaining a positive view on Yara's growth strategy, particularly its projects with Air Products, the bank determined current valuations adequately reflect these opportunities. Deutsche Bank increased its 2026 EBITDA forecast by 11% to $2,989 million, driven by expectations of higher fertilizer prices persisting longer than previously anticipated and slightly lower energy costs. The bank now projects 2026 EBITDA to be 9% above the pre-results company-compiled consensus.

For the first quarter of 2026, Deutsche Bank forecasts EBITDA of $850 million, up 33% year-over-year and 12% above Bloomberg consensus. The bank also increased its 2027-2028 EBITDA forecasts by 2-3%. The price target increase was driven by average earnings per share upgrades of 7.7%, but the valuation-driven downgrade suggests Deutsche Bank sees limited additional upside potential from current levels despite the company's strong growth prospects.