Delivery Hero (DHER) shares tumbled 7% after reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GMV and full-year EBITDA at the low end of its guidance range, reigniting doubts about its recovery trajectory. The German food delivery giant’s MENA region—its primary profit driver—saw GMV growth of just 0.9% in reported currency, far below the 9.6% consensus, while full-year adjusted EBITDA landed above €900 million, the floor of its €900-€940 million forecast. Analysts warn this underperformance highlights persistent fragility in key markets, with the stock down over 50% from its 2023 peak of €87.

Asia’s GMV declined 11.4% in reported currency, though like-for-like growth turned positive after exiting Thailand. Americas outperformed, with GMV rising 13% in reported currency, while Europe’s 6.5% growth was dampened by Spain’s rider model shift. Full-year GMV grew 9% like-for-like, edging below consensus at €49.2 billion, with foreign exchange headwinds cited as a key factor. Free cash flow exceeded €200 million, surpassing guidance, though EU fines and litigation costs continued to weigh on margins.

The company withheld 2026 guidance, deferring details to its March 26 annual report, prompting Jefferies to question whether current €1 billion EBITDA consensus aligns with Talabat’s FY26 outlook. Cash reserves stood at €2.1 billion, with €2.8 billion in convertible bonds outstanding. AdTech revenue surged to €1.48 billion, growing at a 50% CAGR since 2021, while gross margins hit a record 8.3% in Q4.

Jefferies maintained a "buy" rating with a €35 price target, citing Asia’s recovery as a "bright spot," while RBC reiterated "outperform" despite neutral sentiment. Delivery Hero’s revised reporting structure, which excludes vouchers from segment revenue, aims to improve transparency but leaves near-term challenges unresolved.