Jefferies has upgraded BYD's A-shares to Hold from a previous rating, citing a sharp correction that has largely priced in recent negatives. The stock has fallen about 40% from its peak, with analysts now seeing positive catalysts emerging including the upcoming Tech Day in late February/early March and a pipeline of new models and technologies.

Analysts led by Johnson Wan expect an intensive rollout of new models and technologies after Chinese New Year, likely in early March. This could help BYD regain market share in China after declining from 34% in 2024 to 27% in 2025. Since December 2025, BYD has announced 11 new models on the MIIT website for 2026, including the Datang D-segment SUV equipped with lidar, megawatt fast-charging and rear-wheel steering.

The brokerage expects BYD's exports to reach 1.5 million units in 2026, up 43% year-on-year, providing a hedge against weaker domestic conditions amid subsidy cuts and rising competition. Despite rising material costs and a one-off rebate to dealers, Jefferies forecasts fourth-quarter net profit of about RMB9.7 billion, up 25% quarter-on-quarter but down 35% year-on-year. The firm has cut its fiscal 2025 earnings forecast to RMB33 billion and lowered FY26 to RMB40 billion, citing a still-slow autos market as consumers digest subsidy reductions.