Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett argues the U.S. equity market has not yet reached a peak. He notes that while bullish positioning and strong earnings optimism are present, the critical third condition—policy tightening—is missing. This combination differs from historical peaks like 2018 or 2022, suggesting the rally could continue.

The supportive backdrop includes Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential fiscal stimulus, such as tax and tariff reductions. Hartnett warns that a sustained move in the 30-year Treasury yield above 5.1% would signal tighter money and a panic threshold, a level last seen in October 2023 and May 2025.

Beyond equities, Hartnett remains bullish on gold, calling it an under-owned hedge amid currency debasement and fiscal excess. He also sees a new secular bull market for emerging markets, driven by strong commodities, firming currencies, and lower yields. Recent fund flows show $15.4 billion into bonds and $4.9 billion into gold, while equities saw $43.2 billion in outflows.