Analysts predict the Bank of England will keep its Bank Rate at 3.75% during the February 6 meeting, citing stubborn inflation despite a softening labor market. UBS, ING and Barclays all forecast a hold, with tight 7‑2 or 5‑4 votes expected.

UBS projects two cuts this year, likely in March and June, while ING sees a March cut as more probable than the 20% market odds. Barclays expects the MPC to trim one‑year‑ahead inflation to 1.7% and raise two‑ and three‑year forecasts to 2.2% ahead of the next policy print.

Both banks warn that wage growth, though easing, remains above the 3% threshold, keeping the BoE cautious. The consensus is that the Bank will maintain its forward guidance of a gradual downward path, balancing hawkish and dovish views as rates edge toward neutrality for the coming months.

Investors will focus on the forthcoming Monetary Policy Report and the Agents’ pay survey, which will shed light on wage expectations. A shift in these data could prompt an earlier cut, altering the trajectory of UK borrowing costs and influencing global bond markets for institutional investors and strategists.