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Greene warns central banks on supply shocks limiting policy power

Bloomberg Markets •
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In a recent Odd Lots podcast, Bank of England chief economist Gillian Greene argued that post‑Covid central banks are confronting a wave of supply‑side turmoil that traditional demand‑focused tools can’t easily address. She cited lingering supply‑chain bottlenecks, the Ukraine conflict and the fresh flare‑up in Iran as examples that strain monetary policy’s effectiveness for the eurozone and beyond.

Greene warned that policymakers risk “looking through” these shocks, assuming they are transitory, which could embed inflation expectations and destabilize markets. She emphasized that supply constraints can generate price spikes independent of demand, leaving rate hikes less potent. Investors therefore should monitor commodity inventories and logistics indicators as they may signal the true trajectory of global price pressures in emerging markets and across the United States.

The podcast’s take aligns with a broader reassessment among bond traders who are pricing in a higher probability of prolonged tightness in energy and raw‑material markets. As central banks grapple with limited policy levers, firms facing input shortages may see margins squeezed, prompting CEOs to accelerate supply‑chain diversification. Greene’s message underscores that the next market pivot may come from real‑economy adjustments, not monetary easing for investors seeking yield in the near term.