BCA Research has shifted its stance on U.S. equities to neutral, following a similar move by HSBC, after revised employment data revealed the labor market was significantly weaker than previously understood. The firm's analysis of annual payroll revisions showed that 2025 payrolls expansion was even more limited and concentrated than earlier estimates suggested.

BCA highlighted that payroll growth fell below its stall-speed threshold in August 2024, not June 2025 as initially thought, yet corporate earnings and the broader economy continued without disruption. The firm attributed this resilience to structural changes including wealth gains and a stronger social safety net, which have weakened compensation's influence over consumption and helped households weather slow hiring.

Despite spending outpacing income for much of last year, BCA noted that a surge in income narrowed the gap in January, with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act expected to further reduce the disparity as taxpayers receive refunds. While less concerned about an impending U.S. recession, BCA has nonetheless adjusted its global allocations, downgrading the U.S. to equal weight and upgrading the Euro Area to equal weight in global equity portfolios.