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HSBC lifts US equity outlook as war risk fades

Bloomberg Markets •
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HSBC Holdings Plc raised its outlook on United States equities after a string of indicators suggested that geopolitical tensions are receding. The bank’s research team said the easing of war‑related risk has nudged the market conversation away from safety premiums toward corporate earnings fundamentals. Analysts now see the S&P 500 trading closer to its historical valuation range.

Investors have been cautious since the outbreak of conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, which pushed many funds into defensive sectors. With the threat of wider escalation appearing to diminish, HSBC expects earnings growth to re‑emerge as the primary driver of stock performance. The firm upgraded its US equity rating by one notch, citing improved profit forecasts across technology, consumer discretionary and industrial firms.

The upgrade signals a broader shift in portfolio construction, prompting asset managers to tilt back toward growth‑oriented names after months of risk‑off positioning. By anchoring valuations to earnings rather than conflict‑driven spreads, HSBC believes the market can sustain higher price‑to‑earnings multiples without triggering volatility. The move underscores the bank’s confidence that a calmer geopolitical backdrop will reinforce the United States’ role as the world’s earnings engine.