Berenberg upgraded BASF to "hold" from "sell," lifting its price target to €48 from €38 for the Frankfurt-listed shares. The brokerage cited a decisive shift in Europe's political stance toward the chemicals sector, which it believes now outweighs its previous bearish earnings momentum thesis. The stock traded at €50.76, above the new target, valuing the company at €45.1 billion.

The upgrade follows three key EU policy developments. Provisional anti-dumping duties on 1,4-butanediol reached up to 142.5% for U.S. producers. China also ended VAT rebates for some chemicals. Most critically, discussions intensified around deferring cuts to free carbon allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System, which Berenberg estimates could save BASF €300-400 million at a €100 per tonne carbon price.

Analyst Sebastian Bray noted that while valuation is stretched at roughly 9x 2026 EV/EBITDA, sticking with a sell rating was "unnecessarily stubborn" given only minor changes to earnings forecasts. The market has already repriced the stock, adding €4 billion in market capitalization since early February as investors anticipate further regulatory support for the sector.