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Barclays slashes Rio Tinto rating amid iron ore valuation pressure

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Barclays cut Rio Tinto to equal weight from overweight on iron ore and valuation pressure, lowering its price target to 6,600p from 6,885p. The brokerage cited tightening iron ore valuations and weaker near-term conditions, noting prices are near seasonal highs with expected declines through Q4. Rio's EBITDA margins plummeted to 4.4% in H2 2025 from a 29.5% average 2018-24, while free cash flow fell to $59 million. Barclays also flagged Rio's constrained long-term copper position and limited asset-sale prospects. CEO Simon Trott sees no rationale for separating iron ore, emphasizing the diversified model as the best value generator through the cycle. Rio underperformed BHP since Q4 2025, narrowing the EV/EBITDA discount to the tightest since 2020.