Barclays lowered its rating on Finnish telecom Elisa Oyj from overweight to equal weight after a weaker-than‑expected fourth‑quarter. The broker trimmed the price target by 20% to €40, citing tighter competition and slower growth, and a lack of near‑term catalysts that could lift earnings for investors today.

Elisa reported Q4 revenue of €588 million, 1.5% higher YoY but below the €595 million consensus. Adjusted EBITDA held steady at €198 million, missing the €202 million forecast. Rising customer churn to 23% and modest ARPU growth added pressure on profitability. Investors will scrutinize the company’s plan and dividend.

Barclays projects 2026 revenue to be flat to slightly higher, with telecoms growth of 1–3% and software up 10% organically. Adjusted EBITDA is expected at €815–845 million, below consensus, implying only 1–5% growth. The broker also flagged a €40 million cost‑cutting program. This may help stabilize margins amid competitive pressure.

Elisa’s dividend outlook signals a shift: a 2025 payout of €2.40 per share versus a 2026 cap of €1.80, yielding 6.5% and 5% respectively. Investors will watch how the company balances shareholder returns against investment in network upgrades and new services and maintain competitive advantage in the market.