Aker BP boosted its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $6.7 billion, up from $6.2 billion, citing higher Valhall field spending and foreign exchange gains. The Oslo-listed oil company expects 86.9% tax shield on 2026-2027 capital spending under Norway's rules, projecting $10 billion in free cash flow through 2030 at $65/bbl Brent. RBC Capital Markets estimates this could enable 10% annual dividend growth starting 2027, delivering $10.2 billion to shareholders over five years.

Production is forecast to decline 8% to 386,000 boe/d in 2026 before recovering to 525,000 boe/d by 2028, driven by Valhall PFP and Johan Sverdrup Phase 3. Management emphasized AI use for exploration optimization while maintaining M&A readiness at high hurdle rates. The company operates exclusively on the Norwegian Continental Shelf with BP and Norway's pension fund as major shareholders.