Analysts at Wolfe Research found that artificial intelligence accounts for nearly half of the recent rise in U.S. unemployment. Since ChatGPT's launch in late 2022, AI-exposed industries have shed jobs consistently, contributing 35 basis points to the unemployment increase.

The broader labor market remains mixed. December job growth fell short of expectations, and prior months were revised lower. However, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, suggesting a stable but stagnant job market where hiring and layoffs are minimal.

Looking into 2026, Wolfe expects continued AI-driven job losses in vulnerable sectors. While government hiring and a potential economic rebound may provide some relief, the analysts warn that AI remains a major risk to employment stability across the U.S.

Workers in tech, customer service, and administrative roles face mounting pressure. Economists are watching to see if retraining programs or policy changes can offset the displacement caused by automation.