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AB InBev Q4 Earnings Beat on Americas Beer Strength

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Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) exceeded fourth-quarter earnings expectations, driven by robust performance across the Americas. The world's largest brewer reported underlying earnings per share of $0.95, a 7.5% increase year-over-year, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.88. This outperformance came despite a 1.5% decline in total volumes, which was better than the expected 2.7% drop. Revenue grew 2.5% organically, exceeding forecasts of 1.5% growth. ABI attributes this success to strength in North, Middle, and South America, where premiumization and market share gains offset broader industry weakness. Michel Doukeris, ABI's CEO, highlighted the company's improved momentum entering 2025. ABI forecasts 2026 EBITDA growth of 4-8%, aligning with its medium-term guidance but outpacing rivals Carlsberg and Heineken, who project 2-6% growth.

North America revenue fell just 1%, better than the expected 2.3% decline, with volumes down 3.5% versus a projected 5.5% drop. The United States saw Michelob Ultra emerge as the top volume share gainer, becoming the leading brand by volume. Middle America revenue surged 5.9% against a 4% forecast, driven by Mexico. South America revenue rose 5% versus a 3.2% expectation, with Brazil showing sequential volume improvement.

China showed signs of stabilization, with volumes declining only 3.9% in Q4, a significant improvement from the 11.4% drop in Q3. ABI maintains its normalized EBITDA margin at 35.2% for the quarter, though full-year margins are expected to expand. The company also advanced its $6 billion share buyback program, having completed $635 million to date. A final dividend of €1 per share was proposed, representing a 15% increase over 2024. Beyond core beer, the Beyond Beer portfolio grew revenue by 23% in 2025, and Cutwater spirits emerged as the top share gainer in total spirits.

For 2026, ABI expects net capital expenditure of $3.5-4.0 billion and a normalized effective tax rate of 26-28%.