Since Corey Goodhue’s father farmed in Carlisle, Iowa, the operation has expanded to 3,000 acres, but trade tensions and weak prices erode margins. Last year’s record soyabean crop still lost money, and this year the farm expects $60,000 in operating income against $2mn of expenditure, leaving Goodhue questioning viability.

The American Farm Bureau Federation forecasts steep losses next year: $138 per acre for soyabeans, $167 for corn, $145 for wheat, and $406 for cotton. U.S. exports of $171bn last year barely outpaced Brazil’s $87bn, signaling a possible shift by 2026.

Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods fractured the U.S.‑China soybean link, allowing Brazil to capture China’s demand. Subsidies of $23bn in 2018‑19 only delayed the shift; the trade war accelerated Brazil’s rise.

With Brazil now the world’s largest soybean, beef, and poultry producer—and the U.S. still dependent on government support—farmers face a future where they may become the secondary, rather than primary, supplier to global markets.