The conflict in the Middle East has pushed global fertilizer prices to highs, and Brazil’s farm sector feels the squeeze. Already coping with weak commodity prices, tight credit and a strong real, growers now face a rise in fertilizer costs that threatens profitability. The surge stems from the Iran war, which has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening supplies for key nutrients.

Soybean acreage, Brazil’s top‑crop driver, is set to expand at the slowest pace in almost two decades, Veeries data shows. Agroconsult and Datagro analysts echo the sentiment, forecasting the weakest growth in ten years. With Brazil supplying roughly a quarter of China’s soy imports, the slowdown could tighten global supplies and lift food‑price pressures in Asian markets.

Higher input bills are forcing growers to cut seed, machinery and fertilizer use, trimming yields and delaying expansion plans. Rabobank predicts a 3.9% drop in fertilizer consumption through 2026, while equipment sales may fall up to 7% per Abimaq. The strain adds political risk for President Lula as agriculture accounts for about 25% of GDP and distressed farmers demand cheaper credit and insurance.