The tech bubble appears to be deflating, and investors should return to old-fashioned valuation rules for guidance. Drawing parallels to painter Paul Delaroche—whose work lost value after photography emerged—assets without cash flows depend entirely on future buyer sentiment. When hype evaporates, these investments crumble like Dutch tulips or Beanie Babies.

SpaceX exemplifies this danger. The company likely trades at roughly 20% of its IPO price when applying traditional valuation metrics, lacking meaningful cash flow despite growth projections. Even optimistic scenarios fail to justify current pricing, leaving investors exposed to substantial risk without adequate reward. The author likens this dynamic to cryptocurrency speculation.

Value investing opportunities exist beyond the tech sector. Intel shares traded at intrinsic value two years ago based on asset worth rather than cash flow, attracting criticism from analysts. Subsequent improvements—including new leadership and government investment—validated the contrarian approach. UK property stocks similarly trade below asset value, with Prologis pursuing Segro at attractive multiples.

Disciplined valuation analysis provides downside protection and identifies mispriced opportunities. While upcoming IPOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others may capture headlines, fundamentals ultimately determine long-term returns. Investors should focus on intrinsic value rather than guessing which tech visionary will dominate tomorrow's market.