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US Job Growth Stalls Amid Market Uncertainty

Financial Times Markets •
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U.S. job creation slowed in June, with only 57,000 jobs added, marking a significant drop from earlier gains. This comes after upward revisions to April and May figures, which were adjusted downward by 74,000, highlighting the fragility of the labor market. Healthcare and financials are leading the current rally, but analysts remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend.

The labor market’s trajectory has been volatile, with post-pandemic growth peaking in 2021 before cooling. Recent upticks in hiring were driven by AI investments and robust consumption, but the June report revealed a sharp decline in hospitality and leisure jobs, losing 61,000 positions. While some attribute this to seasonal factors, the broader trend suggests a weakening in cyclical sectors, raising concerns about economic resilience.

Market reactions remain muted, with limited impact on rate hike expectations. However, the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation measure, which excludes extreme price changes, has sparked debate. Critics argue it may understate inflationary pressures, particularly as tariffs and supply chain disruptions affect costs. Analysts warn that relying on such metrics could obscure real economic risks.

The Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy remains under scrutiny. With trimmed mean inflation figures conflicting with broader trends, policymakers face mounting pressure to reassess their strategies. The coming months will test whether the economy can sustain its recovery or if the recent blip masks deeper vulnerabilities.