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SpaceX IPO Defies Traditional Valuation as Crowd Wisdom Outperforms Experts

Financial Times Markets •
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The SpaceX IPO created a Wall Street spectacle reminiscent of the famous 'Who Shot JR?' television moment. Trading opened around $150 before settling at $160.95, delivering a 19% first-day pop on the $75bn deal. An astonishing $83bn of stock changed hands in the frenzy, with the stock finishing at a $2.11tn market valuation.

Prediction markets proved more accurate than traditional analysts. Polymarket bettors correctly priced the company's market cap between $2tn-$2.5tn, while Hyperliquid's grey market consistently hit the eventual trading range. Most fund managers and investment bankers approached the IPO skeptically, yet retail enthusiasm ran high among those willing to participate.

The disconnect reflects a fundamental shift in how markets value companies. Elon Musk's extraordinary following may matter more than traditional discounted cash flow models. Like cryptocurrencies, SpaceX investors appear to be buying into a narrative and identity rather than just financial prospects.

Next week brings options trading and looming lock-up expirations that could pressure shares. Trading volumes should moderate but remain elevated enough for institutional maneuvering. The real story isn't just the valuation gap, but what it reveals about modern market dynamics.