Shadow markets are pricing a SpaceX IPO at roughly a 35% premium to the $135 reference price. Derivatives from IG International valued the company at $2.4 trillion in Singapore, up from the $1.77 trillion implied by the prospectus. Investors eye the listing as a test for trillion‑dollar tech offerings after recent AI IPOs.

Perpetual futures on crypto venue Hyperliquid traded near $180, implying a valuation above $2.3 trillion and moving $143 million, with $208 million open interest. Polymarket participants assigned a 70% probability that SpaceX would close its debut above $2 trillion. Such speculative pricing reflects thin, leveraged trading rather than broad investor commitment and links crypto markets.

Analysts at IG called the pre‑IPO trade the most popular they have seen, even with a stretched valuation. A strong debut could siphon capital from the Magnificent Seven stocks and Tesla, while boosting suppliers and peers linked to Musk’s ecosystem. If the debut meets shadow expectations, it could set a benchmark for upcoming mega‑IPOs, giving banks proof public markets can absorb such valuations globally significantly.