The price of erbium, a niche rare earth element critical for fiber optics and data centers, has jumped by nearly a third over two months as traders anticipate renewed Chinese export controls in November 2026. Concerns mount that Beijing may reimpose restrictions that were suspended under a one-year US trade truce, with Chinese prices up over 40% and European prices up 50% since June. Market participants are stockpiling ahead of the potential November 'cliff edge' when controls could automatically resume, according to Argus Media's Maeve Flaherty.

The rare earth is essential for telecommunications infrastructure, AI data centers, and medical/ceramics industries. Other controlled metals like holmium and ytterbium have also seen significant price increases, with ytterbium up 75% in China since June. Western nations are accelerating efforts to develop alternative rare earth sources as Chinese export restrictions continue to disrupt global supply chains and threaten European automotive production, according to Moody's.