Kenya's meat exports to the Gulf have plummeted to just 5 per cent of normal levels during Ramadan, a collapse driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran that has disrupted air cargo routes and dramatically increased shipping costs, according to the country's Meat and Livestock Exporters Industry Council. The disruption, which has redirected shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea due to Iranian threats and Houthi attacks, has left consignments stranded at Mombasa port even as demand for livestock peaks for Eid al-Adha in late May. Shipping costs for Kenyan sheep exports to Oman are set to rise from $1,000 to $2,200 per tonne, a jump that threatens to erase profit margins for exporters like Abdirahman Abdi, whose business is already crippled by excess supply and lack of buyers. The ripple effects extend beyond Kenya, with Somali livestock exports to Saudi Arabia also declining in volume due to elevated insurance and logistics costs, according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

This crisis strikes at a critical moment for pastoral economies in the Horn of Africa, where livestock sales are a vital coping mechanism during drought conditions. Prolonged disruption risks forcing distress sales and permanently reducing herd sizes, undermining long-term resilience. Even if routes reopen, the damage may persist, as exporters warn that rebuilding supply chains and restoring buyer confidence will take time, leaving farmers and herders facing severe income losses during a traditionally lucrative trading period.