Andrew Whiffin Published August 25 2026 Kevin Warsh will speak on Friday as central bankers gather at Jackson Hole at the end of the summer break. It will be the first time we have heard from the new US Federal Reserve chair since July’s contested interest rate decision and offers an opportunity to address some of the concerns in Treasury markets since then. The theme of this year’s symposium is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”.

It follows the Genius Act, which became law last year and heralded the official start of the stablecoin era. The act promises a financial revolution that speeds up payments, settlements and clearing, and could have big implications for the Fed if it disrupts the traditional bank deposit model. More immediate is whether Warsh will address the rise in long Treasury yields, which some have blamed on his communication style.

Warsh has failed to offer a credible plan on how to get inflation back to target after more than five years of overshooting. Term premium — the additional yield an investor wants in exchange for holding longer-dated debt — has risen as a result. Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy at Bank of America Global Research, said: “Warsh’s ‘resolute commitment’ to lower inflation is not good enough for the market.

We need to hear details of the Fed’s plan to get inflation down given the persistent failure to meet its target.” Warsh has also previously said that rising yields were a good thing and a sign that the market was figuring things out for itself after the Fed’s decision to remove official forward guidance. That view now appears to be at odds with US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who said “we believe that the yields don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals” after the Treasury intervened with an unscheduled increase in bond buybacks last week. Tension between the two branches of US financial administration is high and a good reason to expect something from Warsh.

Any conflict bodes ill for Warsh’s plans to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. And action in the bond market shows this would only add further upward pressure to yields. If he goes ahead, co-ordination with the Treasury is a must, perhaps via a new formal “accord”.

This makes Jackson Hole perfect for Warsh to contribute to his end of the bargain. Some insight into his reaction function and an acknowledgment that rates may need to rise, as many other central bankers have done, would probably do some good.