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Global investors reap $13tn on US stocks, face crash risk

Financial Times Markets •
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Foreign investors have pocketed about $13 trillion in gains by betting on U.S. equities, eclipsing returns elsewhere this decade. The surge follows a decade‑long rally in large‑cap tech and persistently low interest rates that funneled capital into the S&P 500. That concentration now threatens global portfolios if a market tumble occurs.

Over the past five years, overseas fund managers have shifted an estimated 30 % of their equity allocations toward the United States, chasing higher yields and liquidity. This tilt amplified earnings reports and dividend payouts, reinforcing the profit surge. Yet analysts warn that such homogeneity reduces diversification benefits, making investors more sensitive to Fed policy shifts or a correction in tech valuations.

A 10 % pull‑back in the S&P 500 would translate into a collective loss of several trillion dollars, erasing much of the $13 trillion windfall. Such a swing would compel overseas managers to trim positions, potentially sparking sell‑offs in other regions as capital searches safety. Liquidity could dry up, pressuring even defensive assets.

The episode illustrates how a single market now underpins a large share of global equity wealth, leaving investors with little cushion against a downturn. Portfolio managers will likely revisit diversification rules as they confront the reality that chasing U.S. returns carries outsized systemic risk in future allocations.