Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Toyota are pivoting to alternative lubricants due to a Middle East conflict-driven supply shortage of high-quality base oils. After initial inventory depletion post-war, carmakers now face tight supplies from alternative manufacturers, risking higher costs and delays in routine oil changes. Group III base oil prices have tripled to $4,000 per tonne in Europe and the US, exacerbating vulnerabilities.

Industry experts warn that limited alternative suppliers and potential shipping disruptions could worsen the crisis. Holly Alfano, CEO of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association, emphasized the industry’s lack of margin for error. Shell’s Qatari plant damage and force majeure declarations by some suppliers have left buyers scrambling. Gabriella Twining of Argus Media noted that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, shipments to Europe and the US might not resume until October.

Carmakers are adjusting by accepting reformulated lubricants, though quality and approval processes remain challenges. Stellantis and Toyota secured alternative supplies, while Volkswagen cited industry-wide issues. In Japan, Suzuki dealerships reported oil change delays, and a taxi company raised prices due to doubled base oil costs. Analysts stress that consolidation in the supplier base and reduced crude access for alternatives like South Korea heighten risks.

The crisis underscores fragility in global supply chains reliant on Middle Eastern oil, with carmakers balancing urgency and quality standards.