The war on Iran, now in its eighth month, has failed to achieve its four principal objectives, including regime change and ending nuclear enrichment. John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago calls it "The Mother of All Strategic Blunders," noting the US entered the war on false claims and without a contingency plan for the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite significant damage to the international economy and US alliances, the economic impact has been surprisingly modest. Johannes Urpelainen of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies notes oil prices peaked at USD 126 per barrel in April 2026, far below the predicted USD 200. Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency called it "the greatest global energy security threat in history," but ingenuity has prevailed. The energy transition, resilient supply chains, and increased production from non-Middle Eastern producers have mitigated the crisis.
By September, regional crude exports were approximately 16.3 million barrels per day, down from 19.5 million in February. However, refinery damage and product shortages, particularly diesel, have caused price spikes. Nouriel Roubini attributes the manageable economic impact partly to an AI-driven investment boom, though future growth rates remain critical.
Source: Financial Times Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing