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China’s Energy Strategy Vindicated by Iran War

Financial Times Markets •
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For two decades China’s policymakers have pursued a strategy to cut the country’s reliance on imported oil and gas and guard against a naval blockade in any future US‑China conflict. In 2003 President Hu Jintao warned that control of the Strait of Malacca would give a “stranglehold on the energy route to China,” a concern that has guided China’s naval modernization and its energy‑security drive.

China has boosted domestic coal, gas and oil production, expanded efficiency measures, and rapidly deployed hydro, wind and solar while keeping coal as a “ballast stone” for security. It accelerated electrification, with electric vehicles already displacing about 1 million barrels per day of gasoline and diesel and projected to reach over 4 million barrels per day by 2035, while the 15th five‑year plan assumes oil consumption will peak before the decade ends.

The 2026 Iran war has demonstrated the value of diverse supply routes and massive strategic reserves. China’s stockpiles, estimated at more than 1 billion barrels, allowed it to absorb a drop of more than 1.3 million barrels per day in crude imports while keeping fuel supplies stable, avoiding the price spikes and rationing seen elsewhere. Other Asian nations are now planning larger stockpiles, copying China’s playbook.