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Bond market lags equity rally as Fed nominee testifies

Financial Times Markets •
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Kevin Wall appears before the Senate banking committee for his Fed nomination, and market watchers will dissect his balance‑sheet comments as much as his rate outlook. A lingering criminal probe of Jay Powell adds uncertainty to his path to the chair. Bond prices lag the equity rally sparked by March’s Iran news, leaving yields still significantly below pre‑war levels.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid argues bond investors stay defensive, fearing inflation or stagflation, whereas equities chase optimism. Energy analysts fret over Strait‑of‑Hormuz disruptions, but yields have merely stabilized, not recovered. UBS’s Mark Haefele sees a “heads‑we‑win” scenario: locking in higher dollar, euro and sterling yields offers upside without major downside. They warn further rate cuts could deepen risk.

Bank of America notes investors are “stocks‑maxxing,” while HSBC’s multi‑asset team embraces the bullish tilt despite skeptics. Fixed‑income desks at M&G echo UBS, pointing to the steep short‑end surge in Europe as overblown. With yields anchored and equity momentum strong, the bond market has a clear buying opportunity, rewarding those willing to step in now. Institutional funds are already reallocating capital toward higher‑yield bonds today.