Rutland farmer George Renner has cut his wheat planting by three-quarters to just 30 hectares from 135 hectares after fertiliser prices jumped 30% and fuel costs doubled. Renner's decision reflects a broader crisis as UK farmers slash crop planting to stay viable amid surging oil, gas and fertiliser prices caused by the Iran war. Agricultural input inflation, known as agflation, reached 7.6% in March, well ahead of overall inflation.

Farming groups warn that without government support, UK food production will fall and the country will become more reliant on imports at a time of global supply-chain volatility. This could trigger another wave of food price inflation. The average income for an English cereal farm business is expected to fall by two-thirds to £17,000 in the 2025-26 fiscal year, the lowest level since records began in 2004/05. Dairy farmers face particular pressure, with milk prices dropping from 43p to 31p per litre.

The government faces pressure to intervene as England remains the only European country not directly supporting farmers to produce food. The National Farmers' Union has called for capping fertiliser and agricultural fuel prices to halt inflation before it hits grocery prices. With farmers ordering fertiliser blind due to price uncertainty and some calculating that forecourt diesel is cheaper than agricultural red diesel, the sector warns it's operating on a knife-edge between viability and collapse.