UK motorists face £2 per litre diesel prices within days as wholesale costs surge to a four-year high, driven by the war in Iran. European diesel futures reached $211 a barrel, nearly double crude oil prices, as Middle Eastern supply disruptions tighten global markets. Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie warned prices could climb even higher as buyers compete for limited supplies.

Middle Eastern refiners have become crucial to European diesel supplies since Russia sanctions began, with about 40% of UK diesel coming from Dutch and Belgian refineries dependent on Middle Eastern crude. The UK imports only 10% directly from the Middle East but remains vulnerable due to regional supply chains. Asian buyers are paying premium prices, causing some Europe-bound US diesel cargoes to reroute eastward.

March saw record monthly price increases, with diesel rising over 40p per litre and petrol up 20p. The RAC reported UK motorists endured the fastest fuel price surge in history last month. Energy traders warn petrol stations could deplete diesel stockpiles by mid-May if the conflict continues. Higher diesel costs threaten to accelerate inflation as most UK goods move by diesel-powered trucks, creating acute pressure on Keir Starmer's government already struggling with cost-of-living challenges.