Morgan Stanley’s Asia‑Pacific energy team labels sodium‑ion batteries the “new oil,” projecting 2% market share by 2027, 20% by 2030 and 37% by 2035. The firm says the chemistry will trigger a full‑stack shift for utilities, grids and fleets, turning it into a significant scaling technology, not a niche experiment.

The note forecasts an $800bn capital formation surge by 2035, driven by cheaper aluminium conductors and electrolytes that stay fluid below freezing. Compared with lithium‑iron‑phosphate, costs could drop 30‑40% and cold‑weather capacity loss falls from 50% to under 10%, potentially unlocking 50% more storage demand and reviving marginal wind‑solar sites.

Adoption hurdles persist: sodium‑ion cells still need affordable hard‑carbon anodes and Prussian‑blue pigments, and supply chains lag behind graphite. Price wars may arise if lithium cheapens, while consumers care more about range than chemistry. General Motors’ tie‑up with Peak Energy offers the first large‑scale test, but the market will likely consolidate around incumbents such as CATL.