Donald Trump's social media posts have historically dampened oil prices, but he cannot control the sharp rise in diesel and jet fuel costs. These refined products have roughly doubled since January, now trading at $160 and $174 per barrel respectively, per Argus Media. This surge far outpaces crude oil movements, with Brent crude failing to follow jet fuel's trajectory.

While crude oil disruptions like the Strait of Hormuz closure grab headlines, refined product scarcity is more critical for consumers, driving US diesel prices up 50% year-over-year to $5.38 per gallon. The widening gap between crude and refined prices creates significant margins for processors like Repsol and Neste, who have outperformed oil producers. Should Gulf disruptions persist, this dynamic could shift, potentially raising crude prices while squeezing refiner margins.

However, geopolitical factors and China's export controls complicate this picture, ensuring markets remain volatile regardless of Trump's influence.