Total Energies SE Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné told a French economics conference that Middle Eastern producers are scrambling to offload crude oil accumulated during recent Persian Gulf hostilities. The buildup created a surplus that suppliers are now eager to move, creating downward pressure on oil markets.

Meanwhile, refined product markets face opposite dynamics. Pouyanné noted that gasoline and diesel inventories remain tight, constrained by shipping concerns that have disrupted normal trade flows. These products are still pricing at levels implying crude at $95 to $100 per barrel, significantly above current Brent futures near $72.

The disconnect between crude oversupply and refined product scarcity reflects ongoing logistics bottlenecks from the conflict. Pouyanné expects markets to normalize within three to four months, though shipping route uncertainties could extend the rebalancing period. This creates a complex trading environment where upstream and downstream segments tell different stories.

Traders face a split market: sell crude now while prices are depressed, but prepare for higher refined product costs ahead. The situation underscores how geopolitical events can create divergent pricing pressures across energy commodities.