Oil prices are forecast to surge 5-15% upon Sunday's market reopening, despite Opec+ agreeing to boost output by 206,000 barrels daily from April. Traders anticipate the move will have minimal market impact due to persistent supply disruptions from Iran's ongoing conflict. The narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil flows, saw activity nearly halt as Iran fired missiles at regional neighbors, hitting one tanker near the Gulf's entrance carrying 500,000 barrels of gasoline to Saudi Arabia.

Maritime security advisers warned clients to avoid the Strait for 24 hours, with insurers signaling sharply higher premiums or no coverage for ships in the region. Analysts argue Opec+'s modest production increase won't calm markets while shipping flows remain uncertain. Benchmark Brent crude closed Friday near $73, up over 20% this year, partly on Iran attack fears.

A $5-$10 price jump is expected, driven by refinery supply struggles and short-covering, as analysts note no recent precedents for this supply chain disruption.