President Trump's claim that the US benefits from high oil prices captures a narrow truth: energy price spikes transfer value from consumers to producers. Brent crude has surged 65% this year, boosting shares of oil giants like Exxon, Shell, and BP. European natural gas prices have jumped 80%, creating winners and losers across the energy landscape.

Refiners and natural gas sellers are seeing outsized gains. Spain's Repsol leads European performers thanks to its large refining operations, while Finland's Neste has climbed 30% in a month. Norway's Equinor benefits as a major natural gas exporter. The US market tells a different story—Henry Hub natural gas prices have actually fallen, partly because US export capacity is limited by infrastructure constraints.

Not all producers benefit equally. Companies with production passing through the Strait of Hormuz face greater disruption risks—France's TotalEnergies and Exxon have high exposure there. BP stands out as potentially benefiting most from the price surge, given its high costs and debt load that activist investor Elliott has been pressuring management to address. The windfall could help BP avoid its own financial crisis even as a global energy crisis unfolds.