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Iran War Oil Shock Winners and Losers: Who Profits From Energy Crisis

New York Times Business •
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The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has triggered the worst energy crisis on record, sending oil prices soaring while reshaping global energy markets. Countries operating outside the Persian Gulf have captured windfall profits, while those dependent on the Strait of Hormuz face severe disruptions to their export capabilities.

The United States has emerged as a major beneficiary, with companies exporting far more oil and fuel than usual by late March. However, unlike other oil-producing nations, America lacks a state-owned oil company, meaning extra revenue flows primarily to investors through higher stock prices and dividends rather than reinvestment in drilling or hiring. Russia also profits despite selling similar volumes, as oil prices jumped from $41 to nearly $120 per barrel for Gulf of Finland shipments.

Persian Gulf producers face mixed fortunes. Saudi Arabia and the UAE invested in bypass pipelines years ago, allowing them to maintain exports while generating an estimated $9.2 billion more revenue despite shipping 150 million fewer barrels. These pipeline investments now serve as expensive insurance paying dividends.

Countries without alternative export routes—Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar—have suffered most severely. The analysis reveals that whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz will likely determine future energy market dynamics, with today's winners maintaining dominance as long as the waterway stays contested.