Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of SpaceX with an "Overweight" rating and a $300 price target, projecting significant growth driven by its integrated space infrastructure, global connectivity, and AI capabilities. Analyst Adam Jonas, now focusing on space, believes SpaceX can transform energy into intelligence at scale, with potential monetization through consumer and enterprise solutions.

The firm forecasts SpaceX's revenue to surge from $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion by 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040. This aggressive outlook hinges on advancements in Starship, Starlink capacity, and orbital computing. Morgan Stanley envisions Starlink becoming a ubiquitous connectivity layer, while orbital data centers are expected to reach cost parity with terrestrial equivalents by 2031, deploying 364GW of compute power by 2040.

SpaceX's AI business is projected to be the largest opportunity, with AI revenue potentially reaching $2.6 trillion by 2040. This includes neocloud compute rental and enterprise AI applications. However, the report acknowledges significant funding needs, estimating $72 billion annually between 2027 and 2030, with future equity dilution posing a material risk if debt markets cannot absorb its financing requirements.

The valuation implies that SpaceX's space and connectivity segment would be valued on par with Tesla, while its broader operations would command a valuation similar to Palantir. The report highlights the potential for launch costs to collapse by over 99% within a decade, though the space segment itself is forecast to contribute only 3% to the base-case valuation.