Middle powers have gained attention since Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech, but not all are equally influential. Some states—Qatar, Oman, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan—are “mini‑middle powers” that can pivot on a few strengths such as energy, transport routes, or diplomatic reach.

Qatar uses gas wealth and financial clout to become a key mediator, while Oman keeps channels open between adversaries. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan leverage geography and infrastructure: Azerbaijan sits on east‑west trade routes and supplies energy; Kazakhstan’s oil, uranium and position between Russia and China broaden its sway; Uzbekistan’s size and central location strengthen regional trade.

The Middle Corridor illustrates their power: it offers an alternative to the Russian‑led northern route, and the three states are building a Caspian green‑energy corridor that could feed Central Asian renewables to Europe.

These nations maintain ties with Russia, China, Turkey, the EU and the US, keeping room for manoeuvre. When Russia’s air defences hit an Azerbaijan Airlines jet in December 2024, Baku demanded accountability and compensation, showing that their leverage matters when others need what they control.

Large powers will struggle to shape the next order without their cooperation.