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How tennis agents spot the next stars

Financial Times Companies •
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Agent Stuart Duguid says scouting tennis talent still feels more art than science. He recalled spotting Naomi Osaka when he “heard the crack of the ball” before seeing her swing, and later identifying 16‑year‑old Iva Jovic at the 2024 US Open for her relentless will to win. Jovic now sits inside the top‑20, proving intuition can outrun raw power. His method still guides new agents.

Duguid co‑founded Evolve in 2022, hiring a veteran junior scout to patrol events like the Orange Bowl. The agency relies on a tight network of former players and coaches, paying 10‑20% commissions on endorsement deals and occasionally a slice of prize money. A successful sign‑on can generate significant multimillion‑dollar earnings, as seen with world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka.

Large firms such as IMG and Octagon dominate scouting through invitation‑only junior tournaments and control of ATP/WTA event wild cards, giving them early access to prospects. Octagon’s wild‑card gift to 15‑year‑old Mika Stojsavljevic in 2024 sparked a years‑long dialogue that ended in a contract. The global competitive scramble forces agents to refine data analytics and family‑centric outreach today.