Heathrow has scaled back its passenger growth outlook for 2026, citing mounting uncertainty from the ongoing Iran conflict. The UK airport expects between 80.1 million and 83.6 million travelers this year, down from an earlier forecast of 84.5 million. The drop reflects concerns that Middle Eastern volatility could dampen global travel demand well beyond the region.

The conflict that erupted at the end of February has disrupted Gulf airports that normally handle roughly a third of European-Asia traffic. Passenger numbers to the Middle East have fallen 25%, while April and May both showed weaker demand compared to 2025. Despite this, Heathrow recorded 0.7% growth in the first five months, reaching 32.8 million passengers, driven by larger aircraft and more connecting flights.

The airport now expects adjusted earnings to fall by £153 million from the approximately £2 billion it reported for 2025. Heathrow has shifted to a scenario-based forecasting model given the uncertainty, weighing outcomes from quick conflict resolution through winter, to prolonged instability that could severely impact winter travel. Several airlines have withheld profit guidance this year.

While short-haul and North Atlantic routes remain robust, and Asia-Pacific and Africa show strong growth, the broader pattern suggests travel demand is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions. Holiday bookings have surged toward Europe as travelers adapt to new routing constraints.