China’s heavy‑truck sector has already delivered 30% of new vehicles as electric, a figure that matches 2030 forecasts. The key driver is battery swapping: CATL operates 2,000 swap stations nationwide, allowing operators to lease batteries and swap them in minutes, cutting downtime compared to refuelling.

Cost figures sharpen the case for electrification. A truck that drives 1 million kilometres with 1.2 batteries runs at 17p per kilometre, versus 10p for diesel, while diesel fuel costs 57p per kilometre. The Swaptopus joint venture – a partnership between CATL and UK’s Octopus – can sell energy at 40p and expects storage costs to fall by 7% by 2030, further narrowing the margin.

Europe’s rollout targets 30 swap stations by 2035. The economics look similar, and idle batteries can feed surplus power back to the grid, adding a revenue stream. The complexity of Europe’s market makes adoption slower, but haulage fleets are keen on clear cost savings.

The shift matters because trucks account for 17% of global oil demand. A faster electrification curve could push peak oil demand lower than forecast, reshaping investment in fuel, battery suppliers, and infrastructure developers while compelling fleets to rethink capital expenditure and operating models.