Canadian cattle farmers rallied in Ottawa this week, warning that the pending Mercosur free‑trade pact will flood the market with low‑priced South American beef. Tyler Fulton, president of the Canadian Cattle Association, called the deal “dubious” and said it offers little reciprocal access for Canadian exporters. The sector, worth $34.2 billion annually and employing 350,000 workers, faces a potential shock in the face now.

Imports from Mercosur nations have surged 238 percent since 2021, with annual quotas snapped up in days this year, according to the CAA. Brazil, the world’s top beef exporter, shipped 3.5 million tonnes last year valued at $18 billion, and its first‑quarter 2026 volume rose 18 percent. Canadian beef imports already sit at 30 percent of domestic consumption, recently significantly outpacing the U.S. 19 percent rate.

Negotiations, revived in 2018 to diversify away from U.S. trade turbulence, aim for a signature before the end of 2026. Yet U.S. partners warn Mercosur beef could become a “backdoor” into North America, potentially breaching USMCA rules. Canada’s beef exports reached C$5.3 billion in 2025, 7.7 percent higher, underscoring the sector’s economic weight for rural communities and investors despite the looming threat.