Monopolies can last long, but eventually fade. The Dutch firm ASML has dominated chip‑printing for decades, yet recent worries that China can produce its own “deep ultraviolet” (DUV) tools have lowered the company’s shares by about 8 %.

In reality, China lags a generation in the DUV arena and a decade behind ASML’s EUV machines. That gap is wider than the one in chip design or AI models. ASML spent 12 years turning a prototype into a commercial kit and another eight to hit productivity rates that win customers.

Lithography is a precision art measured in atoms; small tolerances mean constant tweaking and feedback from shipping hundreds of units a year. China can’t yet match that depth of data‑driven iteration, and U.S. export bans prevent ASML from selling EUV gear to the People’s Republic.

Still, China’s talent, funding, and supply‑chain expertise are growing. It outnumbers Europe and the U.S. in workers and engineers, and firms like BYD excel in efficient production. The nation’s five‑year plans accelerate progress, so ASML may lose roughly a third of its China sales eventually. Investors now value more than 60 % of ASML’s enterprise value on cash flows after 2035.