Aircraft suppliers are thriving while airlines struggle. Boeing and Airbus are working through pandemic-era backlogs, giving their suppliers blockbuster orders requiring little extra investment. Two-thirds of maintenance providers and manufacturers reported demand had picked up or remained unchanged, according to a McKinsey survey. Valuations reflect the optimism: parts supplier Heico's market capitalisation has doubled to more than $40bn, trading at 48 times its estimated 2028 earnings. GE Aerospace remains close to its 10-year peak of over 40 times 2028 earnings, while Safran is in "a tailwind situation," says boss Olivier Andriès. Rolls-Royce expects civil maintenance margins to be 28 percentage points higher by 2028 than in 2022.

Airlines tell a different story. IATA halved its 2026 global passenger growth forecast to 2.1 per cent and predicted a 2 per cent net profit margin, citing US-Iran war uncertainties. British Airways owner IAG emphasised margins over market share, and Lufthansa retired jumbo jets from service. For suppliers, a few grounded planes won't matter much — but if conditions worsen for airlines, the supply chain's good times may not last.