European airlines are delaying new jet fuel hedges, betting that the Iran war will end soon and prices will fall. After jet fuel prices doubled to $180 a barrel following the conflict's start three weeks ago, carriers like Ryanair and Lufthansa have paused their typical rolling hedge strategy.

Airlines typically hedge 80% of their fuel needs annually, but the current volatility has them waiting. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said they won't hedge for the next three months, hoping prices drop below $70 a barrel. The conflict has disrupted about 40% of global jet fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with China halting exports.

While markets forecast lower prices later this year, airlines face a dilemma. EasyJet expects prices to fall to $1,000 per tonne by summer from the current $1,800, but uncertainty remains. US carriers like United don't hedge at all, preparing for scenarios where oil could reach $175 per barrel. The gamble leaves European airlines exposed to further price increases if the conflict continues.