Public Markets 8 Hours

Last updated: May 11, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Global Equities & Risk Sentiment

Emerging-market equities surged toward record highs driven by strong positions in artificial intelligence trades, allowing investors to overlook stalled peace talks between the US and Iran. This risk-on appetite extended to industrial metals, where copper headed for its highest-ever close as traders disregarded Middle East deadlock to join the broader rally. Concurrently, the S&P 500 futures rose modestly, underpinned by solid earnings reports from the semiconductor sector, while BYD Co. projected annual sales increases amid an aggressive global EV push despite domestic market cooling.

Fixed Income & FX Markets

The dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, though its upward trajectory against the yen was likely capped by fears of official intervention, keeping the local currency trading in a tight range around 154.80-158.40 yen this week. In Treasurys, yields climbed during Asian trade, with the short end rising more sharply than the long end, extending the steepening trend following last week's strong payrolls data. Meanwhile, analysts suggest the New Zealand dollar may defy bearish positioning due to a hawkish central bank stance and potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

Asian Economic Policy & Currency Management

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to curb spending, specifically limiting gold purchases and international travel to conserve foreign exchange reserves amid the Gulf crisis, a move that consequently hit domestic jewelry stocks. This focus on capital preservation contrasts with the rising confidence seen in South Korea, where JPMorgan hiked the Kospi target to 10,000 citing an improving semiconductor cycle and governance reforms. In a move intended to stabilize capital flows, Indonesia’s central bank increased outstanding bills by the most in two years to support the weakening rupiah.

European Central Bank & Financial Sector Stress

The European Central Bank is expected to hike rates twice in 2026, according to a new survey, as the Iran conflict is forecast to drive inflation higher, though Vice President Luis de Guindos has urged caution regarding the ultimate impact on growth. In banking M&A, de Guindos also attacked German opposition to UniCredit's proposed acquisition of Commerzbank, deeming the Berlin intervention contrary to the single market spirit. Separately, the UK government unit is actively seeking to secure £99bn in investment from Australian pension funds to foster long-term growth.

Private Credit & UK Market Turbulence

The $1.8 trillion private credit market is experiencing distress, forcing firms like Blackstone Inc. to enlist executives to inject capital into its main fund following a recent wave of investor redemption requests. This sector-wide anxiety is compounded by issues in the UK, where problems in the British bridging loan market are rattling US private credit firms following several messy collapses. Furthermore, the decline in private credit returns is attributed by firms to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and a rise in loan defaults, while Apollo Global Management’s BDC reported a $61 million loss last week.

Commodities, Trade, and Geopolitics

European oil majors, including BP, Shell, and Total Energies, reaped up to $4.75bn from trading volatility created by the Iran war, outpacing their US rivals. However, the war's cost shock is also evident in China, where factory inflation hit its post-Covid high, contributing to a 21.5% drop in overall April auto sales as gasoline vehicle demand plunged. In Washington, Beijing officially confirmed the upcoming Xi-Trump summit this week, an event where trade, AI, and Taiwan are expected on the agenda, although expectations for major breakthroughs remain modest.