Public Markets 8 Hours

Last updated: April 13, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Turmoil and Energy Markets

Global energy markets are reeling following President Trump’s order blocking Hormuz, which immediately caused shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to slump dramatically and sent U.S. equity futures lower by 0.7% as optimism faded regarding peace talks. The International Energy Agency stated that current oil prices do not yet reflect the crisis's severity, predicting a convergence soon as the loss of Iranian crude exports intensifies a worldwide scramble for supply. This supply shock is already being felt, with OPEC crude production registering a record plunge in March, and simultaneously impacting inflation, as evidenced by India’s March inflation edging up due to lifted crude prices. While Russia’s output remained flat in March, Ukrainian attacks continue to hamper its seaborne exports, though Kazakh oil exports from a Black Sea port are set to match a record in May, offering some relief to European refiners.

Corporate Fallout and Legal Headwinds

The conflict in the Persian Gulf is directly impacting luxury goods sales, as LVMH reported weaker-than-expected revenue of $22.42 billion for the first quarter, citing disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East and Israel’s war on Iran dampening recovery hopes. Meanwhile, corporate legal liabilities mounted, as the former chief of cement maker Lafarge was sentenced to six years in Paris after the company was found guilty of financing terrorism by paying jihadis to maintain operations in Syria. In banking, Goldman Sachs reported a 19% profit jump, driven by its equities unit which posted a second consecutive quarterly record, beating its previous high by over $1 billion, although its fixed-income business fell well short of expectations, showing the mixed effects of market volatility. Separately, a US judge dismissed President Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, ruling the president failed to plausibly allege actual malice in reporting about a birthday card.

Capital Markets and Dealmaking Amid Uncertainty

Investment bankers are proceeding cautiously with an expected wave of over $15 billion in US IPOs nervously monitoring the volatility stemming from the Hormuz standoff. This IPO activity includes life science firms seeking to raise an aggregate of $693 million and convenience store operator Yesway targeting $321 million, all while seeking to close deals despite geopolitical concerns. In fixed income, the City of Austin is preparing to bring a $1.18 billion airport revenue bond sale to market to fund expansion as metro growth strains capacity. Concurrently, the private credit market is experiencing significant investor anxiety, with some institutions scrambling to withdraw capital due to compounding worries, although European insurers like Generali claim to be structurally shielded from these US risks due to strict capital buffers. In private equity, Josh Harris’s 26North Partners secured a record $6 billion for its debut fund, while Adams Street Partners closed its third private credit vehicle at $7.5 billion.

Regulatory Shifts and Domestic Politics

In European competition enforcement, the incoming EU official has vowed to maintain a hard line on Big Tech, irrespective of political pressure. Separately, following a political upset in Hungary, election winner Peter Magyar indicated he would work with the central bank, though he accused the outgoing Foreign Minister of shredding documents related to EU sanctions against Russia, a nation that still exerts leverage over Hungary via energy sales. In technology, the previous focus on an AI spending boom appears to have faded, with investors now exhibiting less discussion regarding the AI overbuild, even as high-end models from OpenAI and DeepSeek show high error rates when diagnosing medical cases with incomplete data. Furthermore, the US government’s move to block Iranian oil shipping is being compared to its previous actions in Venezuela, but executing a blockade in Hormuz presents more complicated logistics and higher risks.