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Last updated: March 31, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Geopolitics and Market Reaction

U.S. stock futures jumped significantly on Tuesday following indications from President Donald Trump that he favors ending the military conflict with Iran, even if the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains largely inaccessible to shipping. This geopolitical shift provided a temporary lift to equity markets, contrasting with the pain points seen last month, where tech megacaps entered a correction and big-money funds retreated amid escalating Middle East tensions. The price trajectory for Brent crude is on pace for its largest monthly rise on record, with some analysts warning that prices could spike to $150 or even $200 a barrel if the Hormuz closure persists for six to eight weeks 79. This ongoing energy crisis is already manifesting in real-world costs, as U.S. national average gasoline prices surpassed $4 a gallon, and fresh food distributors are now adding surcharges to cover rising diesel expenses 62.

Global Energy and Inflationary Pressures

The disruption stemming from the conflict continues to drive energy prices higher globally, with German power prices for May trading at four times French levels, amplifying structural supply differences. This energy shock is directly impacting central bank policy, as Euro-zone inflation jumped the most since 2022 due to surging energy costs, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will raise rates. In response to domestic pressure, South Africa plans to lower its fuel tax to offset the spike in gasoline costs, while the Bank of Thailand adopted a wait-and-see monetary stance, deeming rate cuts ineffective against a Middle East-driven oil shock 49. Meanwhile, the conflict’s ripple effects extend to infrastructure, evidenced by a major Saudi chemical plant halting production due to supply chain disruptions.

Corporate Activity and Sector Focus

In corporate transactions, Biogen agreed to acquire Apellis Pharmaceuticals for approximately $5.6 billion, aiming to bolster its presence in immunology and rare-disease treatments. In the tech space, investor sentiment soured dramatically on Super Micro Computer Inc., sending investors fleeing the stock despite its strong underlying fundamentals, while tech bulls are preparing to re-enter the market as the Nasdaq 100 valuation relative to the S&P 500 reaches its lowest point since 2018. Separately, wearable device maker Whoop achieved a $10 billion valuation after raising $575 million from sovereign wealth funds and elite athletes, signaling strong appetite for health-tracking technology. In M&A on the consumer front, Unilever nears a deal to sell the majority of its food business to McCormick & Co., a move that will fundamentally reshape both entities.

Financial Services and Regulatory Shifts

Investment banks are positioning for market share gains in Asia, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America poised to capture more of Japan’s ECM deals, driven by increased block trading activity. In private markets, Oaktree Capital Management-backed 17Capital LLP raised about $7.5 billion for its latest net-asset-value loan fund, demonstrating continued liquidity in private credit vehicles. Meanwhile, credit risk in Asia is set for its largest monthly spike since 2023, reflecting growing anxieties over the war’s economic fallout across the region. Regulatory news saw the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority reject Heathrow’s proposed £10 billion spending plan, insisting that average passenger charges remain broadly flat over the next five years.

Airlines and Infrastructure

The transportation sector is grappling with elevated operating costs and strategic shifts. Delta plans to use Amazon’s Leo satellite service for in-flight Wi-Fi starting in 2028, challenging the current dominance of Starlink in airline connectivity. In executive movements, India’s largest airline, Indi Go, named the head of IATA as its new CEO, while former BA boss Willie Walsh returns to lead a major Indian carrier after a previous chief’s abrupt departure 15. Furthermore, investment in Middle Eastern energy infrastructure continues, with an Abu Dhabi firm agreeing to purchase a US gas infrastructure firm for $2.25 billion, signaling Gulf capital prioritizing overseas assets.

Technology and Supply Chain Resilience

The Middle East conflict is exposing vulnerabilities across high-tech supply chains, with the helium shortage now identified as a potential choke point for chipmakers. In response to supply concerns, the US is pressing the UK for cooperation to secure quantum computing supply chains amid broader technology pact standoffs. Separately, the UK’s Raspberry Pi reported a 25% surge in sales, with growth particularly strong across the US and China, benefiting from increased demand for its low-cost computers. In regulatory action, the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority will probe Microsoft to assess whether the tech giant warrants 'strategic market status' for its business software offerings.